Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending February 17, 2024

Home listings continue to become more plentiful so far this year, as sellers list at rates higher than last year, buoyed by an improving outlook on interest rates. While the decline in mortgage rates has stalled in recent weeks due to strong economic and labor market conditions and an uneven decline in inflation, rates are still down over one percentage point from the recent peak, and optimism that they will resume their decline remains high. Moreover, listing price growth has slowed considerably as sellers adjust to market expectations and listing price reductions have increased. Slower listing price growth and more inventory will provide more options for buyers this spring compared to a year ago, as the housing market is expected to continue a slow recovery. 

Key Findings: 

• The median listing price grew by 0.2% over last year. 

The median home listing price was 0.2% higher compared to the same week last year.  This growth rate declined from the previous week (+0.3%), as listing price growth continues to cool after a 35-week high during the week ending January 6th (+2.2%). While the nation’s median home listing price typically rises after the first week of the year, this year’s slower seasonal growth trajectory could indicate that listing prices may not reach last year’s peak this June. In our 2024 forecast, we predicted that the median price for existing home sales would fall modestly by 1.7% due to the required share of household income to purchase a home reaching unsustainably high levels. So far, the data is indicative of this rebalancing as inventory grows and also as the share of home listing price reductions reaches the highest level seen in February since 2019.

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 10.9% from one year ago.  

Newly listed homes were above last year’s levels for the 17th week in a row, which could further contribute to a recovery in active listings meaning more options for home shoppers. This past week, newly listed homes were up 10.9% from a year ago, accelerating slightly from the 9.5% growth rate seen in the previous week. Home selling sentiment, as measured by Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index, improved in January over the previous month, and survey respondents reported high levels of optimism that mortgage rates would go down in the next 12 months. This optimism has resulted in more listing activity so far in February. 

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 15.7% above year ago levels. 

For a 15th consecutive week, active listings registered above prior year level, which means that today’s home shoppers have more homes to choose from that aren’t already in the process of being sold. So far this season, the increase in newly listed homes has resulted in a boost to overall inventory, but while the added inventory has certainly improved conditions from this time in 2021 through 2023, overall inventory is still low compared to the same time in February 2020 and years prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic.  

• Homes spent four days less on the market compared to this time last year.

For a 20th straight week, the typical home spent less time on the market than the same week one year ago. While inventory has increased compared to last year, there are no indications of an over-supply as inventory continues to remain low compared to pre-pandemic years and the time a typical listing spends on the market is relatively low. However, the decreasing time on market compared to last year is far more modest than the huge drops seen in late 2020 through 2022 when the market was booming. 

Data Summary: