Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Aug. 10, 2024

Our research team releases monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In addition, we continue to give readers more timely weekly updates, an effort that began in response to the rapid changes in the economy and housing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Generally, you can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View, the latest weekly housing data on Thursdays, and monthly video updates from our economists. Here’s what the housing market looked like over the past week.

What this week’s data means:

Last week, with mortgage rates dropping to their lowest level in over a year, the housing market continued to move toward a more buyer-friendly direction. In addition to mortgage rate relief, inventory continues to increase, time on the market continues to lengthen, and listing prices continue to stall. However, given that 86% of outstanding mortgage debt has a rate lower than 6%, the still-high mortgage rates are limiting significant improvements in for-sale inventory, which could prevent further price declines.

Fortunately, the cooling CPI in July reassured us of potential rate cuts in September and December, which should help put mortgage rates lower for the rest of the year. In our recent midyear housing forecast update, we have revised our year-end mortgage rate expectations downward to 6.3%, which will hopefully bring more inventory back to the market, setting a more favorable stage for homebuyers heading into 2025. 

Key findings

• The median list price fell by 0.2% year over year

Listing prices continue to fall this week, and notched a 29th straight week of annual price growth below 1%. Year-to-date list prices are up just 0.1%—essentially flat. This trend is somewhat different from sale prices, which have risen at a faster clip, up 4.1% in June, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

While the mix of homes for sale is shifting toward smaller homes pushing price per square foot up 3.1% in July, even though the median price was steady, actual sales have shifted toward more expensive (and likely larger) homes.  

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—dipped this week by 2.2% from one year ago

Despite mortgage rates dropping to their lowest level in over a year, sellers continued to show negative sentiment, leading to a yearly decline in new listings for a second week in a row.

On one hand, the mortgage rate lock-in effect continues to keep many potential sellers out of the market. Meanwhile, concerns about a possible recession and big stock volatility may cause sellers who are also buyers to delay their plans and wait for more stability.

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 35.5% above year-ago levels

For the 40th week in a row, the number of for-sale homes grew compared with one year ago. While the gap with last year has generally been increasing, helping propel inventory to a post-pandemic high in July, this past week the rise was 35.5%, slightly more modest than the rate observed in the prior week. More homes for sale is a much needed, buyer-friendly trend.

• Homes spent 5 days more on the market compared with this time last year

For the 14th straight week, the time a home spent on the market was longer than at the same time last year, and the gap has been widening. A slower time on the market is generally indicative of a market balance shifting in a buyer-friendly direction.

Homebuyers this year may continue to contend with high prices and mortgage rates, but they’re starting to get some time back on their side compared with last year. It’s worth noting that July data from Realtor.com shows that homes still sell about a week faster than they did in 2017 to 2019.

Data summary

Note: The data is revised for the week ending July 27 and Aug. 3, 2024.