September 13, 2024
- The Realtor.com® economics team video update gives you the relevant economic and real estate information you need to know each week every Friday to navigate the housing market as a homebuyer, home seller, or industry professional.
- For the week ending Friday September 13, Chief Economist Danielle Hale recaps the latest Consumer Price Index report showing that annual inflation is down, but core inflation inched up. This mixed news, combined with the latest jobs report, leads Hale to suspect that the Fed won’t make a big rate cut, but it will be a close call.
- Mortgage rates dropped this week to 6.2%—their lowest since February 2023. And they may fall further, although this will depend on the Fed’s next move. Americans also expect mortgage rates to drop, according to a review of survey data by Joel Berner.
- More good news for homebuyers: The Best Time to Buy a house is just a few weeks away according to a new Realtor.com report by Hannah Jones, promising lower home prices, less competition from other buyers, and plenty of listings to shop. Plus this fall there’s a bigger than usual surge in new sellers, according to Realtor.com Weekly Housing Data analyzed by Ralph McLaughlin.
- Despite the seasonal cooling in the market, some areas continue to sizzle. The August 2024 Hottest Housing Markets report showed that Manchester, NH, near Boston continues to reign with a trio of other major east coast metros on the list of biggest movers where the market is heating up.
- If you’re curious how far the Harris campaign’s proposed $25,000 dollars in first-time homebuyer funds will go, we’ve identified 17 of the 200 largest markets where this amount will more than cover a 10% down payment.
- You’ll find all the details including full reports and our housing data for download at realtor.com/research. You can also follow us on X (formerly twitter) for real time updates. And now instagram @realtordotcomecon for graphics.
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT:
- I’m Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com®. And here’s what you need to know about the economy and housing market this week!
- As we move closer to the Fed’s September meeting, inflation data shed light on the second part of the dual mandate.
- CPI inflation receded to just 2.5% in August, implying that we are likely closer to the Fed’s 2% target in their preferred gauge, which could move down from its July reading.
- However, core CPI – a measure that excludes noisy energy and food prices–trended slightly higher, in the month bringing annual inflation by this measure to 3.2%.
- Producer prices showed a similar pattern. The mixed headline and core readings open the door to a lively debate about whether a quarter-point cut or half-point cut will be appropriate. I expect that the uptick in core inflation alongside somewhat steadier August jobs data is likely to keep the Fed from making a bigger cut in September, but this will be a close call, reflected in the shifting odds that the market is placing on the outcome.
- Mortgage rates have definitely priced in a cut, dropping to 6.2%–their lowest since February 2023. Further mortgage rate declines will depend on the speed and size of additional policy changes, and the Fed’s updated economic projections will factor in here.
- Consumers also expect mortgage rates to drop, according to a review of survey data by Joel Berner, and are likely factoring those expectations into their plans for the year ahead.
- Homebuyers with flexible plans should note that the Best Time to Buy is just a few weeks away according to a new Realtor.com report authored by Hannah Jones. This time of year typically offers lower home prices, fewer buyer competitors, and a still-abundant number of options.
- In fact this year’s sweet spot could be even better than usual as Realtor.com Weekly Housing Data, analyzed by Ralph McLaughlin, show a bigger uptick in new sellers and softer median list price compared to one year ago.
- Despite the seasonal cooling in the market, some areas continue to sizzle. The August 2024 Hottest Housing Markets report showed that Boston-adjacent Manchester-Nashua, New Hampshire continues to reign with a trio of other major east coast metros on the list of biggest movers, areas where the market is heating up.
- And finally, if you’re curious about how far the Harris campaign’s proposed $25,000 dollars in first-time homebuyer funds will go, we’ve identified 17 of the 200 largest markets where this amount will exceed a 10% down payment. Several Midwestern and Southern markets are on the list.
- You’ll find all the details including full reports and our housing data for download at realtor.com/research. You can also follow us on X (formerly twitter) for real time updates. And now instagram @realtordotcomecon for graphics.
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