According to the survey, approximately 41.6 percent of U.S. homeowners believe that Donald Trump is best suited to maintain high home values, while 35.3 percent favor Kamala Harris for this role. Although homeowners generally see high home values as beneficial since much of their wealth is tied to home equity, one-third of Americans do not own.
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As the 2024 presidential election approaches, a Redfin-commissioned survey conducted by Ipsos last month reveals notable differences in priorities between homeowners and renters regarding candidates and key issues affecting housing.
The survey, focused on 805 homeowners out of 1,802 respondents aged 18-65, asked participants: Regardless of who you plan on voting for, which candidate do you think will be best for keeping home values high?
According to the survey, approximately 41.6 percent of U.S. homeowners believe that Donald Trump is best suited to maintain high home values, while 35.3 percent favor Kamala Harris for this role.
Although homeowners generally see high home values as beneficial since much of their wealth is tied to home equity, one-third of Americans do not own their homes. Approximately 49 percent of renters surveyed believe Kamala Harris would be better for housing affordability, compared to 31 percent for Donald Trump.
Additionally, 30 percent of renters listed housing affordability as a top-three issue influencing their presidential choice, compared to only 17 percent of homeowners. Homeowners were more likely to cite the economy as a top concern.
A separate part of the survey asked a group of 804 U.S. homeowners and 894 U.S. renters to rank a list of 14 issues to determine: “How important will each of these issues be in your choice of which candidate to support.” The survey’s findings highlight that the economy is the leading issue overall, with 46 percent of respondents ranking it as a top concern, followed by inflation (40.4 percent), health care (26.3 percent), housing affordability (25.1 percent), and crime and safety (23.5 percent).
Homeownership patterns
The pandemic influenced homeownership patterns; while many achieved homeownership due to low mortgage rates, others were priced out as housing prices soared. According to Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather, high mortgage rates are further complicating affordability for first-time buyers, prompting renters to prioritize housing affordability this election cycle. Although starter-home prices are down from last year, they remain above pre-pandemic levels.
This growing concern is reflected in buyer behavior, with 23 percent of prospective first-time buyers indicating they are waiting until after the election to see whether Harris’ housing affordability plan or Trump’s proposed policies will be enacted before making their purchase, according to a Redfin report.
Financially, 52.1 percent of homeowners reported feeling better off than four years ago, compared to 44.2 percent of renters. This disparity is largely attributed to rising housing prices, which have helped homeowners build significant equity.
Among voters, those supporting Kamala Harris are slightly more likely to prioritize housing affordability, with 25.1 percent ranking it as a top issue compared to 20.4 percent of Trump supporters. This trend may reflect the fact that Democrats tend to reside in more expensive coastal and urban areas.
Shifting populations reshaping voting habits
A report from Realtor.com also explores the impact of migration on the 2024 presidential election. Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, notes that shifting populations could reshape voting habits, particularly in swing states where even minor changes in demographics can influence outcomes.
“The influence of migration on election outcomes is a compelling topic of discussion, sparking interest in how shifting populations might reshape the political landscape, ” said Hale. “As more people move across state lines, their voting habits could have the potential to sway election outcomes, especially in crucial swing states, where even small changes in the electorate can tip the scales. This dynamic raises important questions about how migration trends could influence the future of American politics this year and beyond.”
Key findings on migration include potential trends for various states in the upcoming election:
- Four blue states (Connecticut, Delaware, Washington, D.C. and Maine) could trend bluer.
- Seven blue states (California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Oregon and Washington) could trend redder.
- Three red states (Alaska, Florida and Ohio) could shift bluer.
- Twelve red states (Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming) could trend redder.
- Three swing states (Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina) could trend redder, while two swing states (Wisconsin and Nevada) might shift bluer.
- Michigan and Pennsylvania show mixed shifts with no clear direction.
New Jersey shows the largest difference favoring blue shoppers, while Tennessee is the top choice for red buyers. Florida, Texas and North Carolina are among the leading destinations for both blue and red homeshoppers, likely due to their relatively affordable housing markets and favorable climates.
As voters prepare for the upcoming election, the relationship between housing trends and political preferences continues to evolve. With significant attention on housing affordability, opinions on candidate housing policy could significantly impact voter turnout and decision-making in the 2024 presidential election.