May 2, 2025
Reports and articles referenced:
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT:
- I’m Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com®. I hope April showers are becoming May flowers for you as we dig into the latest data on economic growth and consumer confidence. I’ll discuss the jobs report and its implications for mortgage rates as well as cover the latest trends in housing including inventory, prices, pending home sales, and the homeownership rate. Finally, I’ll review recent trends in property taxes and how a new Realtor.com tool can help homeowners do something about them.
- Taking a step back to look at the U.S. economy, we had some notable signals. Overall economic growth slipped in the first quarter for the first time since 2022. A surge in imports was the main driver of the drop. Spending and investment continued to grow in the first quarter.
- The jobs report similarly showed that companies continued to hire, keeping the unemployment rate steady. Wages also rose, at the same pace as last month.
- Nevertheless a sizable April drop in the expectations component of consumer confidence suggests trouble ahead. Consumers expect to see fewer jobs and income gains in the next 6 months as they expect business conditions to worsen. If they’re right, this is likely to mean slower growth or potential declines in both spending and investment.
- Despite concerns about what’s ahead, mortgage rates were fairly steady, dropping 5 basis points, but remaining solidly in high-6% territory. We’ll need to see some policy news or bigger data shifts to drive a larger change in mortgage rates.
- The Realtor.com April Housing Trends Report showed that more homes were newly listed, helping to push overall inventory to the highest since April 2020. Homes spent more time on market, but the median home list price eked out another small gain even as price reductions ticked higher.
- Putting a number on the squeeze that buyers feel, this report showed that the income required to buy a median-priced home rose 70% compared to 6 years ago. This is an important reason why homeownership rates slipped in the first quarter, propelled largely but not only by declines for younger households.
- Weekly housing data showed that aside from the Easter holiday, momentum has been fairly consistent throughout April.
- Pending home sales rose in March, but continue to lag behind their year-ago pace. While Case-Shiller data showed that the national home sales price continued to rise, it also showed that markets like New York, Chicago, and Cleveland had the biggest gains while Tampa, FL saw prices slip in February.
- Finally, we took a look at trends in property taxes to coincide with the launch of a property tax protesting tool at Realtor.com. Perhaps unsurprisingly, property taxes increased as home values climbed and local governments sought more revenue, but there was variation here, and in some states property taxes have declined.
- Whether you live in a state where taxes are declining or not, you can see whether you can reduce your bill by looking at the “ways to save” menu in the MyHome experience on Realtor.com.
- You can find all the details, including full reports and our housing data for download, at realtor.com/research. You can also follow us on X (formerly twitter) for real time updates. And instagram for graphics.
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