April 4, 2025
- The Realtor.com® economics team video update gives you the relevant economic and real estate information you need to know each week every Friday to navigate the housing market as a homebuyer, home seller, or industry professional.
- For the week ending April 4, Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale discusses the latest jobs report as well as market mortgage rates and how they compare to rates on outstanding mortgage debt, March Housing Trends, weekly housing data, and shares her thoughts on the latest tariff announcement.
- The March jobs report showed that companies continued to add jobs and despite the uptick in unemployment, wages still grew. DOGE cuts were evident, but so far signals remain healthy.
- Danielle discusses how financial and equities markets, however, were rocked by the latest administration tariff announcement which added new tariffs of varying amounts on just about all trading partners that will raise costs. Concerns about slower economic growth have investors flocking to safe havens, pushing interest rates lower.
- This week’s market mortgage rates do not reflect this update, and rates remained the fairly narrow 6.6% to 6.7% range they’ve occupied for 5 weeks now, but shoppers may see even lower rates ahead.
- Lower rates may or may not translate into an uptick in housing activity. Danielle discusses the Realtor.com March Housing Trends report including the positives (more sellers) and negatives (fewer pending sales) for sale activity. She also discusses what weekly data show about these trends throughout March.
- Finally, Danielle notes that the uptick in seller activity occurred despite a still sizable lock-in effect. Danielle discusses the latest data on the share of homeowners with a mortgage rate under 6% and how that figure has evolved.
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT:
- I’m Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com®. In this update, I’m going to discuss the latest jobs report, and bring you up to speed on the latest market mortgage rates and how they compare to rates on outstanding mortgage debt, March Housing Trends, weekly housing data, and share thoughts on the latest tariff announcement.
- First, the March jobs report showed that companies continued to add jobs in March with hiring ticking higher. The DOGE cuts were evident in this report, with the Federal workforce shrinking for a second month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up again and wage growth continued, but at a slower pace.
- Last week, I discussed growing consumer concerns in the consumer confidence data, with expectations about the next 6 months falling to a 12-year low. Despite concerns, so far signals from the labor market remain relatively healthy.
- Financial and equities markets, however, were rocked by the latest administration tariff announcement which added new tariffs of varying amounts on just about all trading partners that will raise costs. While this may not mean ongoing inflation, tariffs will certainly raise measured prices in the near term, making it harder for the Fed to parse incoming data and raising the risk of a policy mistake. Concerns about slower economic growth as businesses and consumers scramble to adjust and policy uncertainty delays investment decisions drove equities lower and bond prices higher, pushing interest rates down.
- These developments were not yet tracked in this week’s market mortgage rates which dropped just 1 basis point, remaining within the fairly narrow 6.6% to 6.7% range they’ve occupied for 5 weeks now. This means that mortgage rates are likely to move lower in next week’s update, and shoppers working with a lender are already likely seeing lower rates.
- Whether these lower rates will lead to an increase in housing activity remains to be seen. The Realtor.com March Housing Trends report shows that sellers actively engaged with the housing market, putting more homes up for sale this year compared to last. The data suggest that buyers were a bit more reserved, with pending home sales in many major markets trending lower even as shoppers had more options to choose from and asking prices were flat. Weekly data show that these trends were fairly consistent throughout the month.
- The uptick in seller activity is notable because the gap between today’s market rates and the rate many homeowners have on their current mortgage is quite large. In fact the latest data shows that 82% of homeowners with a mortgage had a rate under 6%. In a sign that the lock-in effect is easing, however, this is down from 87% one year ago and expected to edge lower later this year.
- You can find all the details, including full reports and our housing data for download, at realtor.com/research. You can also follow us on X (formerly twitter) for real time updates. And instagram for graphics.
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