Introduction
After a relatively slow summer, the fall housing market boasts both falling temps and falling mortgage rates. Easing inflation and a cooling jobs market informed the Fed’s decision to cut the policy rate by 50 basis points in September. The market largely anticipated this move, and mortgage rates had already fallen more than a percentage point from their recent peak (7.22%) by the time the Fed made the cut. Mortgage rates continued to fall in the couple weeks following the meeting, but bounced back upon stronger-than-expected September jobs data that raise questions around how quickly the Fed’s policy rate will drop.
Nevertheless, rates are expected to continue to ease lower through the rest of the year and into next year. Building inventory and easing mortgage rates could tee up more favorable buying conditions in coming months, and could grease the wheels of the housing market, especially in areas with high mortgage utilization. For the time being, however, recent housing trends have largely persisted as buyers zero in on low-priced locales in the Midwest and Northeast.
Fall 2024 Housing Market Ranking
Today’s home shoppers are in a slightly better position than in recent quarters. Mortgage rates have fallen from recent highs, and inventory continues to build around the country. The Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Housing Market Ranking highlights housing markets that offer shoppers a lower cost of living, including for homes, and robust local economies. This quarter’s top market, Canton-Massillon, Ohio, is affordable, priced more than $150,000 lower than the national median in September. As has been the trend in recent quarters, only four of the top 20 markets were priced higher than the U.S. median in September, as buyers continue to flock to areas where they can get considerable bang for their buck. The ranking identifies markets that those considering a home purchase should add to their shortlist–whether the goal is to live in it or rent it as a home to others.
We reviewed data for the largest 200 metropolitan areas in the United States. The Fall 2024 ranking surfaced the following top areas:
| Rank | Metro | Population | Unemployment Rate (%) | Median Home Listing Price Sept 2024 |
| 1 | Canton-Massillon, Ohio | 399,474 | 4.7% | $259,000 |
| 2 | Akron, Ohio | 698,398 | 4.7% | $230,000 |
| 3 | Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis. | 1,560,424 | 3.2% | $390,000 |
| 4 | Manchester-Nashua, N.H. | 427,354 | 2.6% | $563,000 |
| 5 | Kalamazoo-Portage, Mich | 262,215 | 4.1% | $360,000 |
| 6 | Springfield, Mass. | 460,291 | 4.3% | $393,000 |
| 7 | Rockford, Ill. | 334,124 | 6.3% | $223,000 |
| 8 | Worcester, Mass.-Conn. | 866,866 | 3.9% | $525,000 |
| 9 | Ann Arbor, Mich | 365,536 | 3.6% | $509,000 |
| 10 | Lancaster, Pa. | 558,589 | 2.7% | $403,000 |
| 11 | South Bend-Mishawaka, Ind.-Mich | 324,490 | 4.8% | $264,000 |
| 12 | Fort Wayne, Ind. | 457,842 | 4.1% | $308,000 |
| 13 | Dayton, Ohio | 814,363 | 4.7% | $250,000 |
| 14 | Erie, Pa. | 267,571 | 3.6% | $240,000 |
| 15 | Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn. | 1,151,543 | 3.4% | $412,000 |
| 16 | Columbus, Ohio | 2,180,271 | 4.2% | $377,000 |
| 17 | Burlington-South Burlington, Vt. | 227,942 | 1.8% | $499,000 |
| 18 | Rochester, N.Y. | 1,052,087 | 3.9% | $283,000 |
| 19 | Toledo, Ohio | 600,141 | 5.3% | $237,000 |
| 20 | Appleton, Wis. | 246,433 | 2.5% | $416,000 |
The Midwest Boasts Climate-Resilient Housing Markets
Climate risk and weather events are top-of-mind for many Americans this fall after the back-to-back devastation from hurricanes Helene and Milton. Though no one can perfectly predict future weather events and be perfectly prepared, climate data can be a useful tool to understand potential risk. The Midwest is not only the most affordable of the U.S. regions, thereby attracting cash-conscious buyers, it also comes with the lowest climate risk among the studied challenges, two factors which contribute to the majority of the top 20 housing markets being in the Midwest.
In recent quarters, we have introduced climate data to the ranking parameters, leveraging data provided by First Street that is currently part of the Realtor.com experience. This data captures the share of properties in a given metro that are affected by severe or extreme exposure to any combination of 5 climate risks– extreme heat, wind, air quality, flood and wildfire– over the next 30 years. Nationwide, more than 2 in 5 homes confront at least severe or extreme exposure to at least one of these climate risks.
Areas in the Midwest tend to be less impacted by these risks, giving buyers some peace of mind when taking on a home purchase. In the top ranked market, Canton-Massillon, OH, just 2.7% of properties are at severe or extreme risk of experiencing one of the 5 risks considered, over the next 30 years. The top 20 markets saw an average of just 3.7% of properties at risk of damage from climate-related incidents. Akron, OH and Appleton, WI boast the most favorable risk share (1.8% of properties) among the top 20 markets, while Hartford, CT has the least favorable risk share (9.5% of properties).
Popular Markets Face Strained Supply, Lagging US
Nationally, inventory levels were up more than 30% year-over-year in the third quarter, but still down an average 26.7% compared to pre-pandemic levels. Only 3 of the top 20 markets fared better than the U.S. in Q3 relative to pre-pandemic: Fort Wayne, IN (-23.8%), Columbus, OH (-23.3%) and Appleton, WI (-22.9%). The rest of the top 20 markets were significantly worse off than the national picture would suggest, led by Erie, PA, where inventory was 80.0% lower than pre-pandemic and Hartford, CT where inventory was 79.2% lower.
Scarcity in the top markets was driven not only by limited supply, but also by climbing buyer demand. In fact, compared to pre-pandemic, the top markets drew an average 67.1% more viewership per listing in Q3, and homes sold an average 14 days faster.
Challenging inventory conditions have kept upward pressure on prices in these sought-after markets. On average, prices were 44.2% higher in Q3 2024 compared to five years prior. For comparison, prices rose 36.2% nationally in the same period. Though the vast majority of the top-ranking markets were lower-priced than the national market in Q3, demand for affordability has led to falling inventory and rapid price growth. While prices leveled off year-over-year nationally in September, the markets at the top of this quarter Housing Market Ranking saw an average 5% price growth. The markets that saw the highest annual price growth were Kalamazoo-Portage, MI (+16.1%) and Rochester, NY (+13.1%).
A Low Cost of Living Without Sacrificing Amenities
While some may associate a lower cost of living with sub-par access to ‘nice to have’ amenities, this quarter’s top markets offer a counter-point. The cost of living in these metros is an average 1.5% below the 200-metro average, and 4.1% below the national standard. The top markets also boast roughly 25% more amenities per capita than the 200 largest metro average. Amenities are measured as the average number of stores per specific “everyday splurge” category (coffee, upscale/specialty grocery, home improvement, fitness) per capita in an area. Kalamazoo-Portage, MI is joined by the college town of South Bend, IN as the metros with the highest number of ‘amenities’ per capita.
Buyers are looking to save without compromising on comforts, and this quarter’s housing markets deliver. Adding to their appeal, the top markets have shorter-than-average commute times relative to the country’s 200 largest metros. Erie, PA and Appleton, WI boast the snappiest commutes of roughly 20 minutes while the Boston-Adjacent Worcester, MA and Manchester-Nashua, NH had the longest commutes, closer to 30 minutes, but still within 5 minutes of the 200-metro average.
Mid-sized Markets with Stable Economies
This quarter’s top markets are bringing in buyers due not only to their affordability, but also their manageable metro sizes and healthy job markets.
The top 20 markets have an average unemployment rate of 3.9%, tracking slightly better than the 200-metro average (4.0%), and the U.S. average (4.1%). However, this quarter’s markets span a large range in terms of unemployment, with 12 markets at or below the U.S. unemployment rate, and 8 above. Rockford, IL (6.3%), Toledo, OH (5.3%) and South Bend, IN (4.8%) have the highest unemployment rates while Burlington, VT (1.8%), Appleton, WI (2.5%) and Manchester-Nashua, NH (2.6%) boast the lowest.
Wages in the top markets are about 1.8% below the 200-metro average, and taxes are 0.5% higher. However, home prices are 21.0% lower than the reference set, on average, more than making up for the difference in wages and taxes.
Solid economies, low prices and favorable access to amenities meant this quarter’s markets made a bigger splash than their size might suggest. Just four markets boasted more than 1 million residents. Columbus, OH is the largest market on the list with a population of 2.2 million. However, the 20-metro average population is just 663,000 people, roughly 50% lower than the 200-metro average. The smallest metro on this quarter’s list was Burlington-South Burlington, Vt. with just 228,000 residents.
City Spotlight: Canton-Massillon, OH
Canton-Massillon, OH climbed 1 spot since last quarter to register as the top housing market in this quarter’s ranking. Canton is located just south of the list’s second-ranked market, Akron, OH, highlighting the favorability of the region. In fact, the state of Ohio claimed 5 of the 20 top spots this quarter, with Dayton, Columbus and Toledo also on the list. Canton is home to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, drawing fans from across the country as the birthplace of the NFL. The biggest employers in the area are in healthcare and manufacturing, contributing to a relatively strong job market with a local unemployment rate of 4.7%.
Canton is relatively small with just 400,000 residents. However, this small, affordable metro saw significant buyer demand and climbing home prices. The median listing price in Canton was $259,000 in September, up 10.2% compared to one year prior but still roughly $165,000 below the national average. Homes spent 32 days on the market in September, a few days less than the previous year, and more than three weeks less than the national median.
Active inventory was 51.5% lower than pre-pandemic in the 3rd quarter of 2024. This scarcity drove price growth in the area and home prices climbed 60.5% versus pre-pandemic in the same time period. Homes in Canton not only attracted more viewers than was nationally typical in Q3, but it also drew 57.1% more viewers per-property than typical in the area pre-pandemic.
Canton is just 25 miles from Akron, allowing buyers in the area some flexibility in where they choose to live to remain within commuting-distance from work. Canton is home to the headquarters of Timken Steel, while Goodyear Tire is in nearby Akron, creating significant job opportunities in the area, along with healthcare companies such as Aultman Hospital.
Highlighting the intermingling of the Akron-Canton corridor, 29.1% of home shopper traffic to Canton comes from within the metro, and 15.5% comes from Akron. Cleveland (12.8%), Washington, DC (12.2%) and New York City (11.7%) also contribute significant viewership. In total, more than 60% of viewership to Canton comes from within-state.
Canton-Massillon, OH Housing Highlights
| Realtor.com – Canton-Massillon, OH: Sept. 2024 Inventory Metrics | ||
| YoY % Change | ||
| Median List Price | $ 259,000 | 10.2% |
| Active Listings | 521 | +10.0% |
| Days on Market | 32 | -4 days |
| New Listings | 412 | -1.9% |
Within-State Home Shoppers Drive Demand
Who’s In, Who’s Out?
The recently revamped Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Housing Market Ranking utilizes new metrics, such as climate risk data, and a reconfigured weighting system.
Returning Markets
Three-quarters of this quarter’s top 20 markets were also on last quarter’s list, highlighting the lack of significant change in the housing market of late. Among the metros that have remained on our list is the ever-popular Columbus, Ohio, as well as the fellow Ohio metros of Canton-Massillon, Ohio, Akron, Ohio and Dayton, Ohio. Only Midwest and Northeast locales stuck around this quarter. Notably, the popular and fast-moving Northeastern metro of Manchester-Nashua, N.H. also remained on the list, continuing the reign of Boston-adjacent locales.
| Market | Fall 2024 Rank | Summer 2024 Rank | Rank Change |
| Canton-Massillon, Ohio | 1 | 2 | 1 spots higher |
| Akron, Ohio | 2 | 3 | 1 spots higher |
| Manchester-Nashua, N.H. | 4 | 4 | 0 spots lower |
| Kalamazoo-Portage, Mich | 5 | 14 | 9 spots higher |
| Springfield, Mass. | 6 | 20 | 14 spots higher |
| Rockford, Ill. | 7 | 8 | 1 spots higher |
| Worcester, Mass.-Conn. | 8 | 17 | 9 spots higher |
| Ann Arbor, Mich | 9 | 9 | 0 spots lower |
| South Bend-Mishawaka, Ind.-Mich | 11 | 5 | 6 spots lower |
| Fort Wayne, Ind. | 12 | 1 | 11 spots lower |
| Dayton, Ohio | 13 | 18 | 5 spots higher |
| Columbus, Ohio | 16 | 12 | 4 spots lower |
| Burlington-South Burlington, Vt. | 17 | 6 | 11 spots lower |
| Toledo, Ohio | 19 | 13 | 6 spots lower |
| Appleton, Wis. | 20 | 10 | 10 spots lower |
Markets Falling Out of the Top 20
Five markets fell off of the list between last quarter and this quarter, dropping between 10 and 31 spots. The biggest mover was last quarter’s 7th-ranked market, Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, Tenn.-Va., which fell 31 spots to rank 38th this fall. The three southern markets all descended off of this quarter’s list, replaced by Northeast and Midwest markets as recent housing trends concentrate further.
New Markets
Taking the places of the 5 descended markets are four Northeast locales, and the Midwest market Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis. All of the markets ascended from within the top 45. Much like the markets that stayed in the top 20, all of the new markets were more affordable than the national market, highlighting the continued focus on low-priced housing.
Methodology
The ranking evaluates the 200 most populous core-based statistical areas, as measured by the U.S. Census Bureau, and defined by March 2020 delineation standards for eight indicators across two broad categories: real estate market (60%) and economic health and quality of life (40%). Each market is ranked on a scale of 0 to 100 according to the category indicators, and the overall result is based on the weighted sum of these rankings. The real estate market category indicators are: real estate demand (15%), based on average pageviews per property; real estate supply (15%), based on median days on market for real estate listings; median listing price trend (15%), based on annual price growth over the quarter; property taxes (10%); and climate risk to properties (10%). The economic and quality of life category indicators are: unemployment (5%); wages (5%); regional price parities (5%); the share of foreign born (5%); small businesses (5%); amenities (10%), measured as the average number of stores per specific “everyday splurge” category (coffee, upscale/specialty grocery, home improvement, fitness) per capita in an area; and commute time (5%).