December 6, 2024
- The Realtor.com® economics team video update gives you the relevant economic and real estate information you need to know each week every Friday to navigate the housing market as a homebuyer, home seller, or industry professional.
- For the week ending December 6, Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale recaps the latest economic data which focused on the labor market.
- First, hiring rebounded in November, and hourly wages climbed 4.0%, faster than recent inflation. This gradual adjustment in labor markets should clear the path for the Fed to continue normalizing monetary policy, with another quarter point rate cut likely later in December.
- Danielle discusses the latest mortgage rates, which dipped for a second week to 6.7%, as markets continue to calibrate expectations around the economic outlook and policy implications of the 2024 elections.
- Danielle reviews findings from recent pending and new home sales data—both of which are based on contract signings—and explains why they moved in opposite directions in October.
- In November, Realtor.com housing data showed that the uptick in mortgage rates early in the month led to a smaller yearly gain in new sellers which could foreshadow a bit of a reversal in October’s pending home sales trend and kept homes on the market for longer.
- Recent Realtor.com rental data showed that rents fell further in October, but in total are down only about 2% from their 2022 peak. In New York, rents continue to climb overall, but dropped in Manhattan where the monthly rent translates into a sizeable homebuying budget in many other areas.
- Finally, it’s that time of year where we look ahead to next year with the Realtor.com Housing Forecast. The big take-aways are that modest gains are ahead for both home sales and prices. The biggest positive story for buyers is that we expect housing inventory to continue to grow in the year ahead which will mean the first full year of a balanced housing market since 2016.
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT:
- I’m Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com®. And here’s what you need to know about the economy and housing market this week as temperatures drop and holiday lights brighten dark evenings!
- Key data covered the labor market. Unemployment edged higher even as company hiring rebounded in November. Importantly, hourly wages climbed by 4%, faster than recent inflation.
- More detailed data on labor turnover in October showed that while job openings are down from one year ago, they remain relatively abundant. This gradual adjustment in the jobs market should clear the path for the Fed to continue normalizing monetary policy, and I expect another quarter point Fed rate cut in December, especially if inflation is moderate next week.
- Mortgage rates dipped for a second week to 6.7%, pulling back from their recent highs as markets continue to calibrate expectations around the economic outlook and policy implications of the 2024 elections.
- In housing, we saw pending and new home sales data–both of which are based on contract signings–move in opposite directions. While pending home sales, which primarily measure the existing home market, ticked up in October, climbing above year ago level, new home sales retreated, falling both in the month and relative to the prior year as lower mortgage rates early in October ushered in more existing homes for sale.
- In November, Realtor.com housing data showed that the uptick in mortgage rates early in the month led to a smaller yearly gain in new sellers which could foreshadow a bit of a reversal in October’s pending home sales trend. Time on market also slowed, so patience is required from sellers in today’s market.
- Realtor.com data also showed that rents fell further in October, but in total are down only about 2% from their 2022 peak. Rental supply that is already in the pipeline is expected to help hold rents back in 2025, especially in the South. In New York, rents continue to climb overall, but dropped in Manhattan where the monthly rent is enough to afford a $600,000 to $750,000 home in other areas of the country that are popular with Manhattan-based home shoppers.
- Finally, it’s that time of year where we reflect back and also look ahead. This week we issued the 2025 Realtor.com housing forecast. The big take-aways are – modest gains ahead for both home sales and prices. The biggest positive story for buyers is that we expect housing inventory to continue to grow in the year ahead which will mean the first full year of a balanced housing market since 2016!
- You’ll find all the details, including full reports and our housing data for download, at realtor.com/research. You can also follow us on X (formerly twitter) for real time updates. And instagram for graphics.
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