Budgets are getting some relief right now, with daily average rates dropping considerably from 8% to 7.5% over the last week.
Nearly 7% of for-sale homes posted a price drop during the four weeks ending October 29, on average, the highest portion on record. The record comes as mortgage rates hover at elevated levels, hitting their highest level in 23 years last week and cutting deep into buyers’ budgets. High rates have forced some sellers to lower their asking price to make up for high interest rates on monthly payments. It’s worth noting that buyers are getting a bit of relief this week, at least temporarily: Economic events sent daily average mortgage rates from 8% down to 7.5% over the last week.
Sale prices are still up 3% from a year ago. That’s partly because sale-price data is a lagging indicator, reflecting deals that went under contract a month or two ago. Growth in sale prices may slow in the coming months as it starts to reflect sales that went under contract as mortgage rates hit 8% in October.
Another reason for rising sale prices is that despite slow demand, low inventory is propping up prices. The total number of homes for sale is down 10% year over year; new listings are up 1% from a year ago–just the second increase since July 2022–but that’s partly due to new listings falling quickly at this time last year. Price drops becoming more prevalent than ever while prices continue increasing illustrates today’s bizarre housing market. Redfin agents describe a mismatch between sellers’ high expectations and the reality of buyers’ budgets, saying it’s more important than ever for sellers to price fairly from the start to attract buyers and sell quickly.
“Some sellers are pricing too high because they have FOMO after their neighbor’s house sold well over asking price two years ago,” said Seattle Redfin Premier agent Patrick Beringer. “While low inventory is driving some competition and relatively affordable homes in popular neighborhoods are still selling fast, they’re getting two or three offers as opposed to 20 offers at the height of the market. With mortgage rates in the 7.5% to 8% range, buyers simply don’t have the budget they would have had two years ago or even one year ago.”
In the Seattle metro, for instance, the typical homebuyer’s monthly mortgage payment is $232 more than it would have been a year ago. It’s nearly $2,000 more than it would have been two years ago.
| Seattle metro area: Homebuyer’s typical monthly mortgage payments | |||
| Average mortgage rate (30-year fixed) | Median home-sale price | Typical monthly mortgage payment | |
| Late October 2021 | 3.14% | $723,000 | $3,218 |
| Late October 2022 | 7.08% | $762,000 | $4,863 |
| Late October 2023 | 7.76% | $774,500 | $5,095 |
Leading indicators
| Indicators of homebuying demand and activity | ||||
| Value (if applicable) | Recent change | Year-over-year change | Source | |
| Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 7.51% (Nov. 2) | Down from 7.9% a week earlier | Up from 7.09% | Mortgage News Daily |
| Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 7.76% (week ending Nov. 2) | Down slightly from 7.79% a week ago; still near highest level in 23 years | Up from 7.08% | Freddie Mac |
| Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) | Down 1% from a week earlier (as of week ending Oct. 27) | Down 22% to its lowest level in nearly 30 years | Mortgage Bankers Association | |
| Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) | Down 6% from a month earlier (as of the week ending Oct. 29) | Down 1% | Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents | |
| Google searches for “home for sale” | Down 6% from a month earlier (as of Oct. 28) | Down 12% | Google Trends | |
| Touring activity | Down 16% from the start of the year | At this time last year, it was down 27% from the start of 2022 | ShowingTime, a home touring technology company | |
Key housing-market data
| U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending October 29, 2023 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. | |||
| Four weeks ending October 29, 2023 | Year-over-year change | Notes | |
| Median sale price | $369,613 | 3.4% | Prices are up partly because elevated mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year |
| Median asking price | $383,200 | 5.4% | Biggest increase in a year |
| Median monthly mortgage payment | $2,757 at a 7.76% mortgage rate | 12% | $16 shy of all-time high set a week earlier |
| Pending sales | 68,693 | -8.8% | |
| New listings | 79,906 | 1.1% | Second year-over-year increase since July 2022; the first was a week earlier. The increase is partly because new listings were falling at this time last year. |
| Active listings | 858,570 | -10.2% | Smallest decline since July |
| Months of supply | 3.7 months | +0.3 pts. | Highest level since February 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. |
| Share of homes off market in two weeks | 37.7% | Up from 34% | |
| Median days on market | 33 | -2 days | |
| Share of homes sold above list price | 29.4% | Up from 28% | |
| Share of homes with a price drop | 6.9% | +0.2 pts. | Record high |
| Average sale-to-list price ratio | 99.1% | +0.4 pts. | |
| Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending October 29, 2023 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. | |||
| Metros with biggest year-over-year increases | Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases | Notes | |
| Median sale price | Newark, NJ (14.8%) San Jose, CA (13.6) Anaheim, CA (11.5%) West Palm Beach, FL (10.6%) Columbus, OH (10.3%) | Austin, TX (-6%) Fort Worth, TX (-3%) Tampa, FL (-1.8%) Portland, OR (-1.2%) San Antonio, TX (-1.1%) | Declined in 5 metros |
| Pending sales | Austin, TX (2%) Tampa, FL (1.3%) Las Vegas (0.2%) | Portland, OR (-23.5%) Sacramento, CA (-21.6%) San Antonio, TX (-21.6%) Seattle (-18.1%) Newark, NJ (-16.4%) | Declined in all but 3 metros |
| New listings | Phoenix (13.9%) San Jose, CA (12.7%) Miami (12.1%) Tampa, FL (10.7%) West Palm Beach, FL (10.6%) | Atlanta (-22.5%) Portland, OR (-14.7%) Seattle (-12%) Nashville, TN (-10.2%) San Antonio, TX (-9.8%) | Increased in 16 metros |
Refer to our metrics definition page for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.
