Current tariff policy is causing multifamily uncertainty about future years as construction starts have plummeted from the 2022 peak, Yardi Matrix says in a supply forecast.
The current under-construction pipeline is set to deliver 536,000 units in 2025 and 422,000 in 2026.
The report says construction starts moderated significantly in 2024.
“The large decline will drive a slowdown in new supply in 2026. However, elevated completion times and a still-large under-construction inventory imply that supply will not completely bottom until 2027,” writes Ben Bruckner, senior research analyst for Yardi Matrix, in the report.
The report says tariff policy has added a great deal of uncertainty to how multifamily construction starts will unfold in the remainder of 2025. The forecast assumes starts will be at a similar-to-slightly-lower pace than what was recorded in 2024.
Yardi Matrix continues to forecast that new supply will bottom in 2027, with a gradual recovery taking hold in 2028 through 2030.
“As always, Yardi Matrix is extremely focused on accurately maintaining our development-pipeline data and identifying any changes in its evolution that will have a meaningful impact on future new supply,” Bruckner writes.