As the economy grows and the job market remains strong, what will 2025 look like for the multifamily industry?
“We expect multifamily advertised rents to increase moderately in 2025, by 1.5% nationally,” writes Yardi Matrix writes in its winter report. “Many of the underlying conditions that drove strong demand should persist in 2025. Most notably, weak buying power and the high costs of homeownership continue to keep potential buyers in apartments longer.”
While 2025 looks good, the market faces some questions, “including the impact of potential economic policy changes, how long it will take to absorb deliveries in high-growth Sun Belt markets, and whether interest rates will fall enough to revive transactions and avoid distress,” the company says in the Multifamily Outlook for 2025.
Changes Are Coming In 2025
Yardi Matrix says the incoming Donald Trump administration will implement a new policy course.
“Some campaign policies such as relaxing regulations, eschewing rent control and reducing taxes should have a positive impact on multifamily. However, tariff threats and promises of large-scale deportations could raise prices and lower apartment demand,” the report says.
Highlights of the report
- In terms of advertised rents, metros in the Northeast and Midwest will continue to lead, boosted by positive demand and weak supply growth.
- The large number of properties under construction will support robust supply growth again in 2025, but the dwindling number of starts will stifle deliveries in 2026 and 2027.
- Supply growth is distributed unevenly, as 12 to 15 high-growth markets account for a large percentage of deliveries.
- At the same time, a national housing shortage has built up over decades, making development necessary to address affordability.
- Activity in capital markets will be heavily dependent on the direction of interest rates. Increased trading activity is expected in 2024, but rate cuts likely won’t be fast or deep enough for a strong rebound in 2025.
- At the same time, rate cuts won’t be enough to significantly alter the loan-default issue. Some loans that have been extended in the hope of imminent lower rates will default, though that cohort is not expected to be large enough to create a systemic crisis.
The Elephant in the Room?
Yardi Matrix says, “The elephant in the room for the forecast: a new administration that promises to bring about numerous policy changes. Growth should benefit from some new policies” such as extension of tax cuts and relaxing of some regulations.
- The government is likely to drop regulation of multifamily-fee management, while policies that stymie development will be loosened or not strictly enforced, and funding of affordable housing programs such as opportunity zones and the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit should remain intact or be expanded.
- The President-elect has also expressed his willingness to open some federal land to housing construction, which will reduce costs, as land prices alone can be significant barriers for developers.
“But some proposed policies could be detrimental to multifamily housing. Trump’s tariffs could not only elevate overall inflation but increase the cost of building materials, which could hinder development and possibly lead to retaliation from other countries.
“Also, higher costs could inhibit the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates, which are such a key hurdle to commercial real-estate transactions.
The campaign promise for large-scale deportations of undocumented immigrants is another policy with potential negative impact as it could reduce housing demand and construction workers and introduce other areas of uncertainty. “Immigration, both legal and illegal, has been a source of demand for multifamily,” Yardi Matrix writes in the report.
The Work-from-Home Question
Work-from-home is another driver of rental demand, even as calls to return to the office become more prevalent.
Roughly two-thirds of office workers are either hybrid or fully remote, which translates into more people wanting space for home offices. Work-from-home also boosts demand in suburbs and less expensive metros.